Dating business cycle turning points

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Conventional view is that the identification of the dates a more timely estimation of so-called coincident index. released before making a call of a business cycle turning point. dating business cycle turning points, which we call the “quarterly real-time GDP-based. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Journal of Economics and Finance. Catherine Doz, Anna Petronevich. Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: a. MS-DFM approach. hal Harding, Don : Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points.

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Thanks much to Menzie for holding down the fort while I was away last week. Show all authors; Book/Volume: Editor(s): C. Milas, P.A. Rothman, Dick van Dijk, David E. Wildasin ISBN: eISBN: Post a Comment Please note: Comments are moderated.

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This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used to identify business cycle turning points. An intuitive, graphical derivation of these algorithms is presented along with a description of how they can be implemented making very minimal distributional assumptions. We also provide the intuition and detailed description of these algorithms for both simple parametric univariate inference as well as latent-variable multiple-indicator inference using a state-space Markov-switching approach. We illustrate the promise of this approach by reconstructing the inferences that would have been generated if parameters had to be estimated and inferences drawn based on data as they were originally released at each historical date.

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Request PDF on ResearchGate | Dating Business Cycle Turning Points | This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used.

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This paper presents a logit model for dating business-cycle turning points. The regressors are monthly series from the Business Cycle Indicators database of the .

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Dating Turning Points in the. Business Cycle*. I. Introduction. Business-cycle turning points, dates that the economy switches from expansion to recession.

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the Center for Economic and Policy Research. (CEPR) Business Cycle Dating Committee date business cycle turning points using a small number of aggregate .

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